Stop nodding when people say AI 'understands' things.
Get ahead of 90% of leaders who believe this myth:
I am republishing something that I posted as a “Note” on 26 Dec, which apparently didn’t reach many of you! Let me re-post, and I wish you a happy 2025!
Dear fellow truth-seekers,
Picture this: You're at a holiday dinner, and someone confidently declares, "AI understands reality because it can predict what we'll say next!" Would you nod along, or would you be the one to unwrap this carefully packaged assumption?
Over and over again (x.com/Hesamation/status…), Ilya Sutskever made waves by claiming that next-token prediction requires "understanding underlying reality." It's a seductive idea, especially when it comes from one of AI's leading voices. But as we close this year in AI, perhaps it's time for a reality check.
Here's why this matters to you:
If you're making strategic decisions about AI implementation, billions in investments are riding on assumptions that deserve scrutiny. While others chase the hype, you have an opportunity to gain a genuine competitive edge through clearer thinking.
Let's unwrap three uncomfortable truths:
1. Pattern Recognition ≠ Understanding
Imagine a weather app perfectly predicting tomorrow's temperature. Does it understand meteorology? Of course not. It's pattern matching at its finest, but understanding requires something deeper. The same applies to language models—they're incredibly sophisticated pattern matches, but calling this "understanding" is like saying a mirror understands the image it reflects.
2. The Map Is Not The Territory
Language, and by extension data, is just an abstraction of reality (honestai.substack.com/p…). When we train AI on this data, we're training it on a simplified map, not the actual territory. This isn't just philosophical nitpicking – it has real implications for your AI strategy. Every AI solution you implement inherits these fundamental limitations.
3. The Complexity Gap
Reality is dynamic, contextual, and infinitely layered. Even our best AI systems work with a drastically simplified version of it. When we pretend otherwise, we're not just being intellectually dishonest – we're building products and making large investments on shaky foundations.
The Gift of Critical Thinking
I'm offering you something different this Christmas season: permission to question the prevailing narrative. While others are wrapping themselves in comfortable assumptions, you can:
- Ask better questions about AI capabilities
- Make more informed strategic decisions
- Build more realistic AI implementation plans
- Stand out with nuanced understanding
A Christmas Wish
My wish for 2025 isn't for more powerful AI – it's for more honest conversations about it. We need fewer pronouncements about what AI "understands" and more rigorous thinking about what it actually does.
Share Your Voice
I'm sharing these thoughts on LinkedIn (linkedin.com/posts/albe…), and I'd love to hear your perspective. What assumptions about AI do you think need unwrapping? What questions aren't we asking? Join the conversation and help build a more thoughtful AI future.
Wishing you clarity amidst the complexity,
—a
PS If this resonated with you, please share it with someone who needs to hear it. Sometimes, the best gift we can give is permission to think differently.
PPS If you want to see my Christmas wishes to AI, take a look here :) linkedin.com/posts/albe…
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Post highly polished with Claude (apologies I’m not native English)